{ "_meta": { "description": "Structured data behind the COMPS watchlist (Advertising & Media public comps). Machine-readable mirror of everything rendered in the PWA. Fetch this to answer questions about the comps universe, financials, news, the US/UK econ calendar, and the AppLovin competitive landscape.", "snapshot": "2026-07-23T07:25:00Z", "generated": "2026-07-23T08:07:34.168Z", "schema": { "COMPANIES": "array of {sector, ticker, trackerKey, name, sector_long, earnings, news:[{date 'DD-MMM', text, reaction (number, +24h % move or null), link}]}", "FINANCIALS": "map ticker -> {quarters, rev_actual, rev_estimate, rev_guide, rev_unit, px_actual, px_target}; 5 quarters = 4 past + 1 forward (forward actuals null)", "TRACKERS": "map trackerKey -> markdown (latest-quarter highlights + watch-next). NOTE trackerKey != ticker: GOOGL->GOOG, DIS->DISN", "ECON_EVENTS": "array of {date 'YYYY-MM-DD', event, importance high|medium|low, estimate (frozen pre-release), actual (null until released)}", "LANDSCAPES": "map ticker -> competitive-landscape boxes/tiles; currently APP (AppLovin) only" } }, "COMPANIES": [ { "sector": "internet", "ticker": "GOOGL", "trackerKey": "GOOG", "name": "Alphabet", "sector_long": "Search / Cloud / YouTube / AI", "earnings": "22-Jul-26 After Mkt", "news": [ { "date": "21-Jul", "text": "Launches Gemini 3.6 Flash, 3.5 Flash-Lite and a 3.5 Flash Cyber security model — shipped the day before Q2 earnings, amid lingering Gemini-delay concerns.", "reaction": -1.4, "link": "https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-3-6-flash-3-5-flash-lite-3-5-flash-cyber/" }, { "date": "20-Jul", "text": "Stock +3% on a report Google is developing a 'Frozen v2' AI-efficiency chip — seen as a trial run, not planned at TPU production scale.", "reaction": 1.5, "link": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/20/alphabet-googl-stock-ai-chip-report.html" }, { "date": "20-Jul", "text": "Alphabet reports first (Wed 22 Jul) into rising AI-capex scepticism: Gemini delay, Mag 7 lagging the S&P, Big Tech debt doubled to $350bn.", "reaction": 1.5, "link": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-19/big-tech-needs-to-justify-ai-spending-as-investors-dump-stocks" }, { "date": "19-Jul", "text": "Google and Apple clash with the EU over AI-assistant distribution — Brussels using DMA enforcement to force open competition on mobile.", "reaction": 1.5, "link": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/19/tech/apple-google-ai-eu-regulations" }, { "date": "18-Jul", "text": "Pixel 11 price leak points to Google losing its traditional price advantage vs iPhone 17; betting on camera AI and Gemini integration instead.", "reaction": 1.5, "link": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaymcgregor/2026/07/18/google-pixel-11-release-date-price-leak-iphone-17-price-comparison/" }, { "date": "18-Jul", "text": "Glancy Prongay & Wolke continues a securities-fraud investigation for GOOG shareholders — plaintiff solicitation, low materiality amid EU/Gemini headwinds.", "reaction": 1.5, "link": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260717805839/en/Securities-Fraud-Investigation-Into-Alphabet-Inc.-GOOG-Continues" }, { "date": "16-Jul", "text": "Gemini 3.5 Pro delayed months — coding fell short of internal goals as rivals ship ahead; GOOGL -4%, ~$225B of market cap wiped out.", "reaction": -4.4, "link": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/16/alphabet-stock-gemini-3-5-pro-ai.html" }, { "date": "16-Jul", "text": "EU DMA order: Google must share search data with rivals (incl. OpenAI) from Jan 2027 and open Android to rival AI assistants.", "reaction": -4.4, "link": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/16/google-required-to-open-up-to-ai-search-engine-rivals-under-eu-mandated-changes.html" }, { "date": "16-Jul", "text": "4,500 Google staff petition Pichai for layoff protections — voluntary exits first, guaranteed severance, end to forced-distribution ratings.", "reaction": -4.4, "link": "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/jul/16/google-workers-layoff-protections-ai" }, { "date": "15-Jul", "text": "Buffett says he personally initiated Berkshire's $31B+ Alphabet stake — took $10B of the $80B equity raise; sees GOOGL beating most Wall Street stock pickers.", "reaction": 3.2, "link": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/warren-buffett-tells-cnbc-he-initiated-berkshire-hathaways-investment-in-alphabet.html" }, { "date": "15-Jul", "text": "Brussels preparing fresh Google fines — hundreds of millions across DMA cases for self-preferencing (shopping, travel) in search; follows the €4.1B Android ruling.", "reaction": 3.2, "link": "https://www.pymnts.com/big-tech/2026/european-union-prepares-fine-google-increased-enforcement/" }, { "date": "15-Jul", "text": "Google urges the EU's top court to uphold the ruling that scrapped its $1.7B AdSense antitrust fine; regulators are appealing the annulment.", "reaction": 3.2, "link": "https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/google-urges-eu-top-court-back-ruling-scrapping-17-billion-antitrust-fine-2026-07-15/" } ] }, { "sector": "internet", "ticker": "META", "trackerKey": "META", "name": "Meta Platforms", "sector_long": "Social / Messaging / Ads / AI", "earnings": "29-Jul-26 After Mkt", "news": [ { "date": "20-Jul", "text": "Halting its $174B share buyback to fund AI capex — FY26 capex guide $115-135bn, roughly 2x the ~$72bn spent in 2025.", "reaction": 0, "link": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/07/20/meta-platforms-abandon-174-billion-investment-ai/" }, { "date": "20-Jul", "text": "BlackRock arranging a >$12B bond sale for 'Project Sopaipilla', the El Paso, TX data-centre campus it owns 80% of (Meta 20%); JPM and MS mandated.", "reaction": 0, "link": "https://seekingalpha.com/news/4615397-blackrock-seeks-to-raise-12b-from-bond-sale-to-finance-data-center---report" }, { "date": "20-Jul", "text": "Snap settles the LA social-media addiction case, leaving Meta the only major defendant remaining for trial; >3,000 individual complaints.", "reaction": 0, "link": "https://www.claimsjournal.com/news/national/2026/07/20/338945.htm" }, { "date": "20-Jul", "text": "Faces a separate Tennessee state consumer-protection trial alleging Instagram was designed to be addictive and targeted teens.", "reaction": 0, "link": "https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/meta-faces-tennessee-trial-over-allegations-instagram-was-designed-be-addictive-2026-07-20/" }, { "date": "17-Jul", "text": "In early talks to lease data-centre capacity to Anthropic — would make Meta a cloud infrastructure provider, a novel model for a social platform.", "reaction": -2.8, "link": "https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/17/tech/meta-anthropic-ai-cloud-computing" }, { "date": "14-Jul", "text": "26 employees sue Meta, alleging its AI layoff tools discriminated by ignoring protected leave — a first major AI-driven employment-discrimination suit.", "reaction": 0.7, "link": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/14/meta-lawsuit-layoffs-ai.html" }, { "date": "13-Jul", "text": "Commits an added $40B to its Louisiana 'Hyperion' data centre — near-term outlay now ~$50B, lifetime cost to exceed $250B for ≥5 GW of AI compute.", "reaction": -1.9, "link": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/13/meta-louisiana-data-center-investment-reaches-50-billion-amid-ai-push.html" } ] }, { "sector": "internet", "ticker": "AMZN", "trackerKey": "AMZN", "name": "Amazon", "sector_long": "E-commerce / AWS / Ads / Devices", "earnings": "30-Jul-26 After Mkt", "news": [ { "date": "21-Jul", "text": "Amazon Business hits $60B annualised gross sales across 11M+ organisations, adding AI tools (Business Assistant, Savings Insights, Spend Anomaly Monitoring).", "reaction": -1, "link": "https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/company-news/amazon-business-60-billion-annualized-gross-sales" }, { "date": "21-Jul", "text": "North Carolina's Richmond County approves Amazon's $10B data centre on water, power and jobs — as other communities refuse; follows the Missouri build.", "reaction": -1, "link": "https://www.wral.com/news/local/why-one-north-carolina-county-said-yes-to-amazon-10-billion-dollar-data-center-july-2026/" }, { "date": "20-Jul", "text": "Announces a multibillion-dollar AWS/AI data-centre investment in Missouri, with new jobs attached.", "reaction": 1.1, "link": "https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/company-news/amazon-data-center-missouri-new-jobs" }, { "date": "20-Jul", "text": "Amazon Ads VP Jeremy Helfand: 'TV ads should sell stuff, not just win awards' — in-show integration, co-branded ads, measurable outcomes over brand.", "reaction": 1.1, "link": "https://www.beet.tv/2026/07/tv-ads-should-sell-stuff-not-just-win-awards-amazons-jeremy-helfand.html" }, { "date": "20-Jul", "text": "L1 Capital International Fund's Q2 2026 investor letter names AMZN a favoured position, bullish on the outlook.", "reaction": 1.1, "link": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-optimistic-amazon-com-amzn-133319181.html" }, { "date": "20-Jul", "text": "AWS's Amazon Connect adds more natural agentic-voice interactions with expanded language support.", "reaction": 1.1, "link": "https://aws.amazon.com/about-aws/whats-new/2026/07/amazon-connect-agentic-voice/" }, { "date": "18-Jul", "text": "Delivery service partners — independent businesses, not Amazon directly — lay off 150+ staff across the San Francisco Bay Area.", "reaction": 1.1, "link": "https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2026-07-18/amazon-delivery-companies-to-lay-off-more-than-100" }, { "date": "17-Jul", "text": "Unifies Prime Video + MX Player (India) under one ad offering on Amazon DSP; new QR shoppable ads, Branded Carousels and Pause Ads.", "reaction": -1.1, "link": "https://www.afaqs.com/news/advertising/amazon-brings-prime-video-and-mx-player-under-one-advertising-platform-12172161" }, { "date": "16-Jul", "text": "Jassy says Amazon's custom-silicon business already has $225B in commitments, +40% QoQ — a '$20B business inside AWS'.", "reaction": -2, "link": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/07/16/andy-jassy-says-amazons-chip-business-already-has/" }, { "date": "15-Jul", "text": "Jefferies sees Amazon 'well-positioned' into Q2 earnings, citing AWS demand acceleration and Prime Day consumer spending as key catalysts.", "reaction": 3, "link": "https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1095443/amazon-seen-well-positioned-going-into-q2-report-on-aws-momentum-prime-day-spending-1095443.html" }, { "date": "14-Jul", "text": "Closes a $25B SEC-registered notes offering (incl. a $750M tranche) — proceeds presumably for AI/data-centre capex; adds to the Big Tech debt theme.", "reaction": 0.1, "link": "https://www.gibsondunn.com/gibson-dunn-represented-amazoncom-on-25-billion-notes-offering/" } ] }, { "sector": "streaming", "ticker": "NFLX", "trackerKey": "NFLX", "name": "Netflix", "sector_long": "Streaming / SVOD / Ads / Gaming", "earnings": "16-Jul-26 After Mkt", "news": [ { "date": "21-Jul", "text": "Files a 424(b)(5) prospectus for a debt offering, days after the Q2 selloff left the stock -28% YTD.", "reaction": 1.6, "link": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1065280&type=424B5" }, { "date": "21-Jul", "text": "Reportedly weighing Tubi/Roku-style free channels and service bundling — a notable shift in content-organisation strategy.", "reaction": 1.6, "link": "https://www.pocket-lint.com/netflix-considers-channels/" }, { "date": "20-Jul", "text": "Phillip Securities upgrades to Buy from Accumulate, PT $110 (~60% upside) on the post-Q2 valuation reset; cites no signs of slowing engagement.", "reaction": -2, "link": "https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/phillip-securities-upgrades-netflix-stock-rating-on-valuation-93CH-4800017" }, { "date": "20-Jul", "text": "Post-earnings selloff leaves NFLX -28% YTD; the weakness underpins its rationale for pursuing Warner Bros. Discovery and Roku.", "reaction": -2, "link": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/netflixs-post-earnings-sell-off-172000520.html" }, { "date": "19-Jul", "text": "Paid $587M cash for Ben Affleck's AI post-production startup InterPositive (closed Mar 2026); GenAI workflows used in ~300 Netflix titles in 2026.", "reaction": -2, "link": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/07/19/netflix-paid-587m-for-ben-afflecks-ai-filmmaking-startup/" }, { "date": "16-Jul", "text": "Q2 rev $12.56B just shy of est; Q3 guide ($12.86B rev, $0.82 EPS) below consensus sent the stock down >8% after hours.", "reaction": -7.3, "link": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/netflix-stock-drops-after-q3-revenue-falls-short-co-ceo-says-not-all-views-are-created-equal-201022485.html" }, { "date": "16-Jul", "text": "Pre-earnings debate dominated by engagement red flags: NFLX ~45% off highs, returning-viewer declines on top originals; est. $12.59B rev (+13.6%), adj EPS $0.79.", "reaction": -7.3, "link": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/07/15/with-netflix-down-45-from-its-highs-viewer-engagem/" } ] }, { "sector": "streaming", "ticker": "DIS", "trackerKey": "DISN", "name": "Disney", "sector_long": "Media / Streaming / Parks / Sports", "earnings": "05-Aug-26 Before Mkt", "news": [ { "date": "21-Jul", "text": "Cutting several hundred jobs, with Pixar, National Geographic, ESPN and Disney Entertainment TV/Studios hit — jarring against D'Amaro's 'invest in breakthrough creative' pitch.", "reaction": -0.3, "link": "https://deadline.com/2026/07/disney-layoffs-pixar-national-geographic-1236999275/" }, { "date": "21-Jul", "text": "Announces a landmark Kraft Heinz alliance spanning food, media and the parks — cross-promotion from Main Street U.S.A. to Galaxy's Edge.", "reaction": -0.3, "link": "https://news.kraftheinzcompany.com/press-releases-details/2026/Kraft-Heinz-and-The-Walt-Disney-Company-Announce-Landmark-Alliance-Uniting-the-Iconic-Companies-Across-Food-Media-and-Experiences/default.aspx" }, { "date": "20-Jul", "text": "Marvel Studios debuts the trailer and poster for Avengers: Doomsday — content marketing ahead of the film's release.", "reaction": -1.3, "link": null }, { "date": "18-Jul", "text": "Live-action Princess and the Frog in development — Colman Domingo and Robert O'Hara in talks to co-write an original Tiana story, not a beat-for-beat remake.", "reaction": -1.3, "link": "https://deadline.com/2026/07/colman-domingo-princess-and-the-frog-movie-tiana-1236997261/" }, { "date": "17-Jul", "text": "Trump threatens to revoke ABC and NBC broadcast licenses after they didn't carry his primetime speech on linear TV — headline risk for DIS; the FCC controls licensing.", "reaction": -2, "link": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2026/07/17/trump-threatens-to-revoke-abc-and-nbc-broadcast-licenses-for-not-carrying-his-speech-live/" }, { "date": "17-Jul", "text": "Disney+ orders a pilot for a Mickey Mouse Club reboot, 71 years on; production starts this month in LA, Ben Winston exec producing.", "reaction": -2, "link": "https://deadline.com/2026/07/the-mickey-mouse-club-disney-plus-pilot-1236983470/" }, { "date": "16-Jul", "text": "Announces its largest-ever show floor for D23 2026, expanding the fan convention's exclusive experiences and exhibitor footprint.", "reaction": 2.6, "link": "https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/news/d23-show-floor-2026/" }, { "date": "15-Jul", "text": "Disney+ expands to 58 audio languages and adds a right-to-left interface (Arabic, Hebrew, Urdu), broadening international streaming accessibility.", "reaction": 1.3, "link": "https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/news/disney-plus-expands-languages-right-to-left-interface/" } ] }, { "sector": "streaming", "ticker": "ROKU", "trackerKey": "ROKU", "name": "Roku", "sector_long": "CTV / Streaming Platform", "earnings": "30-Jul-26 After Mkt", "news": [ { "date": "17-Jul", "text": "Warren/Balint-led lawmakers ask DOJ for an impartial antitrust review of Fox's $22B Roku bid — Tubi + The Roku Channel; answers sought by 30 Jul.", "reaction": 0.4, "link": "https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/doj-probe-fox-roku-deal-1236650991/" }, { "date": "17-Jul", "text": "CFO/COO Jedda Dan sells $993K of stock — follows president Charles Collier's $2.9M sale on 9 Jul.", "reaction": 0.4, "link": "https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/roku-cfo--coo-jedda-dan-sells-993300-in-stock-93CH-4775238" }, { "date": "16-Jul", "text": "'See You in Roku': turns the Roku City screensaver into an interactive experience — 6 short films, city map, clickable Tour Bus.", "reaction": 0.3, "link": "https://newsroom.roku.com/news/2026/07/roku-brings-roku-city-to-life/buwtkwux-1784142417" }, { "date": "15-Jul", "text": "FMR LLC (Fidelity) significantly reduces its Roku holdings (as of 30 Jun) — a notable cut given Fidelity's historically large position.", "reaction": 1.1, "link": "https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8958946/fmr-llc-significantly-reduces-holdings-in-roku-inc" } ] }, { "sector": "social", "ticker": "SNAP", "trackerKey": "SNAP", "name": "Snapchat", "sector_long": "Social / Messaging / AR", "earnings": "03-Aug-26 After Mkt", "news": [ { "date": "20-Jul", "text": "Reaches a tentative settlement in the LA social-media addiction case (terms undisclosed), leaving Meta the only defendant left for trial.", "reaction": 0.7, "link": "https://www.claimsjournal.com/news/national/2026/07/20/338945.htm" }, { "date": "20-Jul", "text": "Cantor Fitzgerald cuts SNAP PT to $5, keeps Neutral; models Q2 revenue +15% YoY to $1.55B, near the top of the guidance range.", "reaction": 0.7, "link": "https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/cantor-fitzgerald-cuts-snap-stock-price-target-to-5-on-revenue-outlook-93CH-4742094" }, { "date": "18-Jul", "text": "Upgraded by Wall Street Zen (minor research outfit) — against a bearish street: Goldman $6 (8 Jul), UBS $5 (14 Jul), DA Davidson Neutral/$5 (7 Jul).", "reaction": 0.7, "link": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/snap-nysesnap-upgraded-at-wall-street-zen-2026-07-18/" }, { "date": "16-Jul", "text": "Snap's newsroom posts a 'Checking in on Snapchat+' update on the growth and state of its Snapchat+ subscription tier.", "reaction": -1.5, "link": "https://newsroom.snap.com/checking-in-on-snapchat-plus" }, { "date": "11-Jul", "text": "UBS (Stephen Ju) keeps Neutral and cuts SNAP PT to $5 from $7 — the fourth major PT cut recently as street targets compress toward the ~$4.68 share price.", "reaction": -0.4, "link": "https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8956088/snap-maintains-by-ubs-price-target-lowered-to-500" } ] }, { "sector": "social", "ticker": "RDDT", "trackerKey": "RDDT", "name": "Reddit", "sector_long": "Social / Community / Search-adj.", "earnings": "30-Jul-26 After Mkt", "news": [ { "date": "20-Jul", "text": "CEO Steve Huffman sells $3.6M of shares, characterised as routine/pre-planned; the COO also sold. Market cap ~$34.9bn.", "reaction": 0.3, "link": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/markets-news/motley/3354783/here-s-what-reddit-ceo-steve-huffman-s-sale-of-company-shares-for-3-6-million-means-for-investors/" }, { "date": "17-Jul", "text": "Jefferies stays Buy, $250 PT — sees a Q2 beat as Reddit takes ad share from LinkedIn, Pinterest, Snap and X; earnings 30 Jul.", "reaction": -2.2, "link": "https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1095587/reddit-set-for-earnings-beat-as-ad-momentum-user-growth-build-1095587.html" }, { "date": "15-Jul", "text": "Reddit pushes into AI shopping search — carousels match community recommendations to advertiser catalogs; CEO calls search ads the 'next big opportunity'.", "reaction": -2.6, "link": "https://finance.yahoo.com/media-advertising/articles/surging-ad-revenue-search-ads-011005905.html" }, { "date": "15-Jul", "text": "Yahoo Finance analyst roundup flags broker calls suggesting RDDT as a buy on its surging ad-revenue story.", "reaction": -2.6, "link": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/brokers-suggest-investing-reddit-inc-133004730.html" }, { "date": "14-Jul", "text": "Citizens (Andrew Boone) reiterates Market Outperform, $240 PT, on Reddit's new AI free-form ad generator built on 'Reddit Community Intelligence'.", "reaction": 1.2, "link": "https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/citizens-reiterates-reddit-stock-rating-on-ai-ad-tool-launch-93CH-4787681" }, { "date": "14-Jul", "text": "Reddit rolls out expanded ad tools — an AI-powered 'Max Campaigns' beta plus contextual/search ads; 1Q26 ad revenue +74% YoY, ARPU +44% YoY.", "reaction": 1.2, "link": "https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/reddit-rddt-rolls-out-030025899.html" } ] }, { "sector": "social", "ticker": "PINS", "trackerKey": "PINS", "name": "Pinterest", "sector_long": "Digital Ads / Social Discovery", "earnings": "04-Aug-26 After Mkt", "news": [ { "date": "21-Jul", "text": "Q2 earnings set for 4 Aug as the stock dips and underperforms; engagement metrics stay strong but the valuation keeps sliding.", "reaction": 0.1, "link": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/pinterest-pins-sees-more-significant-214507584.html" }, { "date": "20-Jul", "text": "Yahoo Finance flags PINS as possibly above fair value despite recent analyst upgrades; the stock is down ~69.8% over five years.", "reaction": -1.7, "link": "https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/pinterest-pins-stock-may-above-080658194.html" }, { "date": "20-Jul", "text": "Product angle: Pinterest's visual search tool is 'quietly reshaping shopping', driving commerce engagement across the app.", "reaction": -1.7, "link": "https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/ueberblick/the-pinterest-app-how-the-visual-search-tool-is-quietly-reshaping/69802814" }, { "date": "16-Jul", "text": "Wedbush reaffirms Neutral on PINS with a $24 PT — implying only ~1.35% upside from current levels.", "reaction": -2.5, "link": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/pinterests-pins-neutral-rating-reaffirmed-at-wedbush-2026-07-16/" }, { "date": "15-Jul", "text": "PINS +4.7% as a GuruFocus GF Value analysis argues the stock remains undervalued after its rally.", "reaction": 4.7, "link": "https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8961234/is-it-too-late-to-buy-pinterest-inc-pins-after-47-rally-gf-value-says-undervalued" }, { "date": "15-Jul", "text": "Co-founder and director Ben Silbermann sells $2.1M of Class A stock (93,750 shares).", "reaction": 4.7, "link": "https://za.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/pinterest-director-benjamin-silbermann-sells-21-million-in-class-a-stock-93CH-4371189" } ] }, { "sector": "adtech", "ticker": "APP", "trackerKey": "APP", "name": "AppLovin", "sector_long": "Mobile Ad Tech / Gaming", "earnings": "05-Aug-26 After Mkt", "news": [ { "date": "20-Jul", "text": "CEO Arash Adam Foroughi and CTO Vasily Shikin sell $197.3M combined — a notably large insider sale; WCM holds APP as its 4th-largest position.", "reaction": 0, "link": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-applovin-corporation-app-is-wcm-investment-management-llcs-4th-largest-position-2026-07-20/" } ] }, { "sector": "adtech", "ticker": "TTD", "trackerKey": "TTD", "name": "The Trade Desk", "sector_long": "Ad Tech / Programmatic DSP", "earnings": "06-Aug-26 After Mkt", "news": [ { "date": "21-Jul", "text": "Rebuilds its entire commercial team just before 6 Aug earnings, with the stock near multi-year lows — follows the CSO's departure to OpenAI.", "reaction": -2.1, "link": "https://www.tikr.com/blog/the-trade-desk-just-rebuilt-its-entire-commercial-team-before-its-august-earnings" }, { "date": "20-Jul", "text": "Kokai update: Netflix inventory is now accessible via the Sellers & Publishers 500+ marketplace, extending TTD's premium-inventory reach.", "reaction": 0.3, "link": "https://www.thetradedesk.com/resources/kokai-update-access-netflix-inventory-in-sellers-and-publishers-500" }, { "date": "20-Jul", "text": "Brokerage consensus recommendation stands at Hold; institutional holdings shifting, with Nicholas Company Inc. increasing its stake.", "reaction": 0.3, "link": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/the-trade-desk-nasdaqttd-given-consensus-recommendation-of-hold-by-brokerages-2026-07-20/" }, { "date": "18-Jul", "text": "Aware Super (Australian pension fund) buys 142,653 shares; Bayforest Capital opens a ~$35K position. 67.77% of TTD is institutionally held.", "reaction": 0.3, "link": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-aware-super-pty-ltd-as-trustee-of-aware-super-purchases-shares-of-142653-the-trade-desk-ttd-2026-07-18/" }, { "date": "17-Jul", "text": "Names Ron Lamprecht Chief Business Development Officer & SVP — a third C-suite hire in a week, signalling a leadership rebuild.", "reaction": -2.8, "link": "https://investors.thetradedesk.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2026/The-Trade-Desk-Appoints-Ron-Lamprecht-as-Chief-Business-Development-Officer-Senior-Vice-President/default.aspx" }, { "date": "16-Jul", "text": "Names Vinny Rinaldi (ex-Hershey VP, prior Amazon/Google) VP Client Strategy & Growth from 27 Jul; reports to COO Vivek Kundra.", "reaction": -1.3, "link": "https://investors.thetradedesk.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2026/The-Trade-Desk-Appoints-Vinny-Rinaldi-as-Vice-President-of-Client-Strategy--Growth/default.aspx" }, { "date": "15-Jul", "text": "Names Kristi Argyilan (ex-Uber global ad head) Chief Commercial Officer & EVP from 27 Jul — a third major C-suite hire, deepening its retail-media push.", "reaction": 2.3, "link": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260715563446/en/The-Trade-Desk-Appoints-Kristi-Argyilan-as-Chief-Commercial-Officer-Executive-Vice-President" }, { "date": "14-Jul", "text": "Unlocks 7-Eleven Japan retail data (~22k stores, ~20M daily visitors) for programmatic CTV/OTT/audio/display ads; extends its Dentsu retail tie-up.", "reaction": -4.3, "link": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-trade-desk-unlocks-activation-of-convenience-store-retail-data-for-digital-advertising-in-japan-302824355.html" } ] }, { "sector": "adtech", "ticker": "SHOP", "trackerKey": null, "name": "Shopify", "sector_long": "E-commerce Platform / Payments", "earnings": "05-Aug-26 Before Mkt", "news": [ { "date": "21-Jul", "text": "Rothschild & Co (Redburn) downgrades to Neutral from Buy on 'AI threats', naming Meta as a commerce rival; shares fell ~4.5% pre-market.", "reaction": -1.2, "link": "https://www.tipranks.com/news/shopify-stock-shop-is-downgraded-over-ai-threats" }, { "date": "20-Jul", "text": "Cathie Wood's ARK sells 203,352 SHOP shares across ARKK/ARKW/ARKF, rotating the proceeds into Meta Platforms.", "reaction": 0.7, "link": "https://ng.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/cathie-woods-ark-sells-shopify-stock-buys-meta-platforms-93CH-2607882" }, { "date": "20-Jul", "text": "Opens a DoorDash integration for US retailers — a new direct-selling channel for brick-and-mortar merchants.", "reaction": 0.7, "link": "https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/shopify-shop-opens-doordash-us-200654185.html" }, { "date": "20-Jul", "text": "Announces a broad commitment to advanced AI technologies across the commerce platform.", "reaction": 0.7, "link": "https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8966479/shopify-shop-embraces-advanced-ai-technologies" } ] } ], "TRACKERS": { "GOOG": "## Highlights by quarter\n\n### 1Q 2026\n\n**Gemini / AI capabilities**\n\n- Gemini Enterprise paid MAUs +40% QoQ\n- Paid subscriptions reached 350m (YouTube + Google One key drivers)\n- Models processing >16bn tokens/min via direct API, up from 10bn last Q (+60% QoQ)\n- 80% better performance per dollar than prior generation\n- Speech-to-text now in 70 languages across Search and Gemini app\n- Gemini 3.1 Pro: Deep Research agent upgrade — MCP support, native visualisations\n- Lyria 3 generated >150m songs since launch\n- Nano Banana 2 reached 1bn images in nearly half the time of Nano Banana 1\n- Personal Intelligence now in Gemini app, AI Mode, Gemini in Chrome\n- Queries at an all-time high\n- **AI Overviews driving overall Search growth** *(yellow highlight)*\n- **Personal Intelligence expanded broadly in US — people asking more personal questions** *(yellow highlight)*\n- Reduced cost of core AI responses by >30%\n\n**Cloud / Enterprise**\n\n- 9x YoY growth in seats sold with partners and partners adopting Gemini Enterprise for internal use\n- Vodafone: proactively resolving outages, automating network planning, precisely targeting capacity\n- Cloud backlog nearly 2x sequentially to $462bn; expect >50% recognised over next 24 months\n- Growth in seats and ARPU\n- TPU hardware to select customers in their own data centers — small revenue share this year, vast majority in 2027\n- Wiz reporting in Google Cloud\n- Cloud revenue would have been higher if they could meet demand\n\n**Ads / Commerce**\n\n- Gemini ensuring \"Promoted Pins\" deeply relevant to user surroundings/location/history/intent — improving ads relevance ~10%\n- Smart Bidding uses Gemini to match user intent more accurately\n- People now search conversationally, share more context\n- AI Max moved out of beta this month\n- Testing new ad format displaying retailers selling recommended products\n- Retail industry rapidly coalescing around open-source Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) launched January\n- Shoppers can review recommendations, compare options, complete streamlined checkout directly in AI Mode and Gemini\n- Apparel try-on tool now available in US (think Google Lens)\n\n**YouTube**\n\n- US viewers watching >200m hours/day\n- Gemini powers YouTube Creator Partnerships — centralised platform in YouTube Studio and Google Ads\n- Subscriptions revenue growing faster than ads\n\n**Financials / capex**\n\n- Cost growth driven by depreciation, content acquisition (largely YouTube), compensation\n- R&D +26%: AI talent compensation + depreciation\n- Ads growth driven by Retail and financial services; DR and Brand both contributing\n- AI plans demand strong; Gemini 3 demand strong\n- AI infrastructure demand, cybersecurity, data analytics\n- Capex guide up from previous estimate\n- TPU 3P revenue: small in 2026, majority in 2027\n\n---\n\n## Watch next quarter / open questions\n\n- Cloud backlog burn-down ($462bn) — recognition pace vs guide\n- TPU 3P revenue ramp — early customer disclosures\n- Universal Commerce Protocol adoption — retailer count, transaction volume\n- AI Max post-beta performance — advertiser uptake\n- AI Overviews / AI Mode monetisation — is search revenue accelerating or just holding?\n- Capex trajectory — incremental from the (already raised) prior estimate\n- Wiz integration in Cloud reporting — synergy commentary\n- Personal Intelligence usage — query-mix shift toward more \"personal\" queries\n\n[Source transcript →](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1NbI_sovAGpZqBRyFTNhdKfAbH7dVFEn601JMyq6Tk_8/edit)", "META": "## Highlights by quarter\n\n### 1Q 2026\n\n**Users / engagement**\n\n- Small DAU decrease due to internet outages in Iran and blocks in Russia. Absent these, FoA DAUs would have been positive QoQ\n- Ranking improvements drove +10% Reels time spent\n- Total video time >+8% globally\n- US & Canada +9% FB video watch time\n- 2x'd length of user interaction sequences for IG training in Q1\n- Same-day posts now >30% of recommended Reels on IG and FB (>2x year ago)\n- >0.5bn users on each of FB and IG watching AI-translated videos weekly\n\n**Financials**\n\n- Q1 Total FoA revenue $55.9bn, +33% YoY\n- Q1 FoA ad revenue $55.0bn, +33% (+29% CCY)\n- Global average price per ad +12% YoY\n- FoA other revenue $885m, +74% — driven by WhatsApp paid messaging and subscriptions\n\n**AI / models**\n\n- Biggest milestone YTD: Muse family release and Muse Spark + significantly upgraded Meta AI\n- Muse Spark now powering Meta AI in direct chat threads across FoA\n- Testing business AIs; weekly conversations 10x since start of year\n- Building foundation models powering organic + ads recommendations; LLM-based recommender systems\n- AI glasses DAUs 3x YoY\n\n**Advertising / monetisation**\n\n- >+6% conversion rate for landing page view ads\n- Adaptive Ranking +1.6% in conversion rates\n- Assistant testing in Q4 — common account issues resolved at 20% higher rate\n- Meta ads AI connectors in open beta\n- >8m advertisers using ≥1 gen AI ad creative tool\n- Annual run rate of value optimisation suite >$20bn, >2x YoY\n- Commerce run rate >2x YoY in Q1 to $10bn\n- **Last month rolled out affiliate partnerships offering on FB** *(yellow highlight)* — creators tag products from participating retailers, earn commission\n- Continued expanding ads on Threads to >200 countries — not a meaningful driver of overall growth this year\n- WhatsApp Status ads rollout — good progress\n\n**Business AIs / messaging**\n\n- Expanded Business AIs on WhatsApp to SMBs across LatAm and Indonesia; Messenger in AsiaPac\n- >10m conversations each week (+10x YoY)\n- Business AIs currently free for most businesses\n\n**Capex / compute**\n\n- Increasing infrastructure capex forecast for the year\n- \"We have continued to underestimate our compute needs\"\n- Expect to make good progress alleviating compute constraints through the year\n\n**Strategy / vision**\n\n- Make Meta AI an assistant that understands context and preferences — helpful in shopping; building agentic capabilities to engage commerce on your behalf\n- Social graph and first-party signals as differentiator\n- Hardware investments and Ray-Ban Meta Glasses — majority in wearables division\n\n---\n\n## Watch next quarter / open questions\n\n- Capex trajectory — \"continued to underestimate\" — does the guide get raised again?\n- Muse Spark performance vs GPT-5.5 / Claude / Gemini 3.5 on enterprise benchmarks\n- Business AI monetisation timeline — when does \"free\" change?\n- Threads ad scaling — at what point does it become a \"meaningful driver\"?\n- Affiliate partnerships rollout — creator + retailer adoption signal\n- Value optimisation suite ($20bn run rate) — pace of doubling\n- Commerce run rate ($10bn) — agentic-commerce monetisation early indicator\n- Ray-Ban Meta Glasses DAU (+3x YoY) — disclosure granularity\n\n[Source transcript →](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1pn__y9WY3aQ1-Boj4qwbIH79PV852k5FHoeFOM9QHYY/edit)", "AMZN": "## Highlights by quarter\n\n### 1Q 2026\n\n- Bedrock: +170% customer spend QoQ; processed more tokens in Q1 than all prior years combined\n- Made OpenAI models available in Bedrock — GPT-5.4 added, 5.5 coming soon\n- Started preview of Amazon Bedrock managed agents powered by OpenAI\n- Strands downloaded >25m times, +3x QoQ\n- AgentCore deploying an agent as frequently as every 10s\n- Agentic capability: queries email, calendar, Slack, local files; flags comms, summarises, makes recommendations, composes/sends, creates agents to automate work\n- Chips business: nearly +40% QoQ\n- Trainium3 shipping 2026, 30–40% better price-performance vs Trainium2, nearly fully subscribed\n- Trainium4 (~18 months from broad availability) already mostly reserved\n- 24x7 AI-powered personal health agent backed by One Medical clinicians\n- Rufus: research, price tracking, auto-buy at set price. MAUs +115% YoY, engagement +400% YoY\n- Want to see third-party horizontal agents improve\n- Direct-to-device demand drove the Globalstar acquisition\n- Productivity example: work that would have taken 40–50 people ~1 year was rebuilt by 5 AI-forward engineers in 65 [days]\n- Smartphone shipments forecast (13%) in 2026 due to rising component costs\n- AI agents can now interact directly with Amazon Ads APIs via natural language — Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini — translation layer converts conversational prompts to structured API calls\n\n---\n\n## Watch next quarter / open questions\n\n- Bedrock customer spend trajectory (+170% QoQ) — sustainable or front-loaded?\n- Trainium3/4 capacity and supply — does AMZN ease GPU/TPU dependency?\n- Rufus engagement (+400%) — does it convert to GMV measurably?\n- AWS chips revenue split — Trainium vs Inferentia vs NVIDIA\n- Ads APIs to LLM agents — early adopter case studies?\n- Globalstar / D2D — strategic positioning vs AAPL satellite, T-Mobile/Starlink\n\n[Source transcript →](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1nGdnhw7kn4hdGdJljPTGXo4OKy3aAE0MzXFiLNkxGl0/edit)", "NFLX": "## Highlights by quarter\n\n### 1Q 2026\n\n- Maintaining guidance\n- Captured c.7% of addressable revenue\n- Account for only 5% of TV view share globally\n- Tested investment discipline — when cost of [M&A] deal grew beyond net value, willing to put emotion and ego aside and walk away\n- M&A remains a tool to help achieve goals\n- Q1 view hours up at similar rate to 2H 25\n- Nielsen increasing weight of linear households — makes streaming look smaller and broadcast/cable larger on relative basis\n- Multi-year deal with CONCACAF for rights in Mexico (additional to Women's World Cup in US/Canada)\n- Programmatic >50% of non-live ads business\n- Building out ads products: improving go-to-market, more sales force, more product attractiveness\n- Advertiser base +70% YoY in 2025 to >4,000 advertisers\n- % of advertisers buying programmatically will increase — programmatic share of ad rev will go up\n- Netflix subs paying the least per hour of viewing vs other SVODs — in some cases you'd pay 2x. Ads plan at $8.99 in US\n- Churn improved across the board this Q — every region better YoY\n- $150bn in consumer spend ex-China, ex-Russia — doesn't even include ad revenue\n- Games: no ads, no IAP — fits kids' natural viewing habits\n- GenAI to help make content better — better tools, processes. NFLX to remain at forefront. Tech DNA, unique data assets, tremendous scale\n- AI in Netflix Ads Suite — easier to design new creative formats, custom ads, improve contextual relevance\n\n---\n\n## Watch next quarter / open questions\n\n- Programmatic share of ad revenue trajectory (>50% in non-live today)\n- Advertiser count progression (>4,000) — pace of growth into 2026\n- Nielsen measurement methodology change — impact on quoted share metrics\n- Live sports (CONCACAF, Women's World Cup) — engagement and ad-load read-through\n- GenAI in Ads Suite — creative output examples, advertiser take-up\n- ARPU per hour vs SVOD peers — pricing room\n- M&A — what's the team eyeing? Walked away from what?\n- Games strategy — kids no-ads/no-IAP commitment vs adult tiers\n\n[Source transcript →](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1nb8IDehqgGnFypqzb4uzLBpaOA1q7AlETswgrOrAJn8/edit)", "DISN": "## Highlights by quarter\n\n### 2Q FY2026\n\n- Disney+ has meaningful international growth opportunity; focused on scaling outside the US\n- Engagement growth drivers include content and product enhancements\n- Launched preview feature in US back in Jan — subscribers preview content directly while browsing\n- Disney+ might be the single most significant opportunity for reducing churn\n- Epic provides interactive, gaming-native environment to reach audiences DISN doesn't currently own — particularly younger\n- Epic-related headwinds to ease in coming quarters\n- No change in consumer behaviour from elevated gas prices\n- Important for Gen Alpha — experimenting with short-form content in a variety of ways\n- Greater interactive entertainment for Disney+ subscribers; personalised content feeds\n- Linear revenues are declining\n\n---\n\n## Watch next quarter / open questions\n\n- Disney+ churn metrics — does the preview-while-browsing feature show measurable impact?\n- International scaling — which markets are driving net adds?\n- Epic Universe — headwinds easing as guided?\n- Linear decline pace — at what point does it stop being the dominant earnings line?\n- Short-form / Gen Alpha experiments — any product launches to track?\n- ESPN streaming standalone trajectory\n\n[Source transcript →](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qOh3AD3HrToXRB3G65ArBR8UtTakqXOqqk3QJBnuJUk/edit)", "ROKU": "## Highlights by quarter\n\n### 1Q 2026\n\n- Expect Q2 platform revenue +20% YoY; subscriptions and advertising both ~this level\n- Launched UI original \"Roku City Dash\" — interactive game\n- Viewer engagement: 25 days per month\n- Ad-free SVOD at $3/month\n- First streamer to participate in Publisher Match\n- Pivot focus: drive more demand in advertising and more subscriptions; results visible in 2025\n- Ex-political, +19% YoY ad growth in 2025\n- If CPMs trend down (not seeing it), wouldn't impact ad margins or revenue. Programmatic shift continuing\n- CTV is ~$33bn market and growing; linear is $60bn and shrinking\n- SMB market: ~$600bn total annual ad spend (external data)\n- Expectation: will grow faster than overall CTV market\n- More ad monetisation starting in Mexico; subscription scale the bigger lever there\n- #1 CTV seller in Canada\n\n---\n\n## Watch next quarter / open questions\n\n- Q2 platform rev tracking vs +20% guide — split between subs and ads\n- SMB advertiser penetration progress vs that $600bn TAM framing\n- Publisher Match traction — does it materially shift programmatic mix?\n- Mexico monetisation curve — when does ad scale catch up to subs scale?\n- Linear-to-digital shift pace; CTV TAM ($33bn → ?) trajectory commentary\n\n[Source transcript →](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1pq5nSc1nG5sHubylfk78jIzMjmCO4SQnxPwH-CIK4E4/edit)", "SNAP": "## Highlights by quarter\n\n### 1Q 2026\n\n- Ad revenue +3% YoY\n- Games reaching 255m MAUs\n- Large advertisers in North America remained a headwind\n- 70% of ad spend now uses ≥1 AI-powered automation solution\n- ~75% of US Chat DAUs viewed ads in Chat\n- SMB advertisers ~3x'd over 3 years; SMB spend +30% YoY in NA in Q1; >30% of global ad revenue\n- New subscription tiers / Lens+, AI-powered Lens interactions as natural discovery layer for premium AI experiences\n- Ad revenue $1.24bn in Q1, +3% YoY\n - Driven by DR ad growth\n - Offset by NA large client headwinds\n - ~$20–25m Middle East geopolitical hit in March\n- Global impression volume c.+17% YoY\n- Total eCPMs c.(12%) YoY\n- Q2 guide $1.52bn–$1.55bn (≈(0.7%) to +1.3%); no Perplexity contribution — amicably ended in Q1\n- Improvements in pricing and yields\n- NA DAU trend improving over past 2 quarters after pulling back on broad-based user acquisition spend\n- Age-assurance offering requires users to share age (not on by default) — limits usefulness; exploring alternatives\n\n---\n\n## Watch next quarter / open questions\n\n- Q2 guide ($1.52–1.55bn) — does the NA large-client headwind ease as guided?\n- eCPM trajectory ((12%) YoY) — pricing recovery or further compression?\n- SMB share of global ad rev (>30%) — durability and ARPU per SMB\n- Lens+/AI subscription tier traction — early monetisation signal\n- Perplexity relationship ending — what fills that revenue gap?\n- Age-assurance practices — regulatory pressure and product implications\n\n[Source transcript →](https://docs.google.com/document/d/12x9OEA_NwyRLepynFVrqm6h3mr4QQrOcDg1tWlg1ehk/edit)", "RDDT": "## Highlights by quarter\n\n### 1Q 2026\n\n- Nearly 500m WAUs globally; 200m in US\n- Goal: 100m DAUs in US (currently ~50m)\n- Performance-oriented revenue >60% of total ad revenue\n- Selectively hiring in sales, ad tech, ML engineering\n- Q2 26 revenue guide $715m–$725m, +43% to +45% YoY (mid +44%)\n- Biggest long-term driver is the feed — hence ML talent focus\n- Search WAUs +30% YoY\n- Bringing in talent from platforms with billions of users that have solved this problem before\n- Porting \"good bots\" (moderator-written) to the developer platform\n- Active advertisers +75% YoY\n- Geopolitical backdrop; partners planning month-to-month, shorter cycles\n- Market overall stable, just lower visibility\n- \"Once we've got you, we've really got you\" — big opportunity converting one-day → seven-day users\n- Most cited source in AI citations across all platforms\n- More agentic behaviour behind the scenes\n\n---\n\n## Watch next quarter / open questions\n\n- Q2 guide ($715–725m) — does it land at or above the +44% midpoint?\n- US DAU progression toward 100m goal — quarterly cadence\n- Search WAU growth (+30%) — does it accelerate or decelerate as ChatGPT/Gemini search agents scale?\n- Active advertiser count (+75%) — is the pace sustainable as base grows?\n- AI citation share — Reddit's defensibility as LLM training/grounding source\n- Feed-ML improvements — measurable impact on time-spent or session length?\n\n[Source transcript →](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1OY3yEQowpmvWfp8jDGXxqgm6O7GaKD0NajDkObU-mZY/edit)", "PINS": "## Highlights by quarter\n\n### 1Q 2026\n\n- 631m global MAUs, +11%; geographic regions in Q1:\n - US and Canada: 106m MAUs, +4%\n - Europe: 159m MAUs, +7%\n - RoW: 367m MAUs, +15%\n- Revenue $1.08bn, +18%. Vertical growth driven by retail and financial services\n\n---\n\n## Watch next quarter / open questions\n\n- Can RoW MAU momentum (+15%) translate into ARPU lift, or does monetisation lag continue?\n- Durability of retail + financial services as primary growth verticals — any signs of broadening?\n- US/Canada MAU growth (+4%) — is the home market re-accelerating or stabilising at low single digits?\n- Promoted Pins relevance work (called out on Alphabet's call as a Gemini collab) — read across?\n\n[Source transcript →](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1COnaaGpY41Rz8hK7qnOTiMK831qSOzGRlrAgzSiwu7Y/edit)", "APP": "## Highlights by quarter\n\n### 3Q 2025 *(1Q 2026 not yet reported)*\n\n- Opening up platform to the public in June — strong tailwind for many quarters\n- Both ads and in-app purchasing monetisation plays into APP's strengths\n- Consumer vertical growing even faster than gaming; only 1.5-years-old product\n- Already ahead of where APP was in Q4 prior to opening up the platform\n- >30s of viewer time per ad, user can't do anything else\n- Games category long-term growth +20% to +30%\n- IAP market mature, c.$100bn TAM\n- AI-generated ads — really tough to tell vs human-built; cost dramatically lower\n- Almost never churn customers after first 30 days; projecting >$70,000/year from every new customer\n- Was $1bn run rate a year ago; much bigger now\n- Some top customers have 50k+ ads live at any given time\n- Not their own compute; Sora 2 referenced\n- Working on click-of-a-button TV-screen migration for customers\n- Material growth almost certainly coming from existing customer base as product improves\n- Giving dashboard access to agents / popular LLMs — advertisers will use favourite LLM to take all action in APP's dashboard\n\n---\n\n## Watch next quarter / open questions\n\n- 1Q 2026 print whenever it lands — does the platform open-up plan stay on track?\n- Public platform launch in June — early signal on advertiser onboarding\n- Consumer vertical growth pace — does it overtake gaming materially?\n- $70k/customer annual run rate — durability and cohort behaviour\n- AI ad creative quality vs human — does pricing power compress for traditional creative agencies?\n- LLM/agent access to dashboard — adoption mechanics\n\n[Source transcript →](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1H3w0PujHuJXQloHg1uASArVceyiNzyL06mz80OaID-o/edit)", "TTD": "## Highlights by quarter\n\n### 1Q 2026\n\n- Publicis advising clients it no longer recommends TTD, claiming DSP failed a 3rd-party audit\n\n---\n\n## Watch next quarter / open questions\n\n- Publicis fallout — does the audit claim spread to other holding-co partners (IPG, Omnicom, WPP, Havas)?\n- TTD's response: independent audit / public rebuttal / disclosure of methodology?\n- Customer concentration risk — what % of spend touches Publicis-affiliated advertisers?\n- Read-across to programmatic CTV competitive set: Roku Publisher Match, Amazon DSP, Netflix programmatic\n- Has Kokai adoption stalled or kept tracking?\n\n[Source transcript →](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1D28W3JLR6o3od2AYPYIZc-nyOWFMSC_eJ8sEDUbzqM0/edit)" }, "ECON_EVENTS": [ { "date": "2026-07-16", "event": "UK GDP Monthly Estimate (May)", "importance": "medium", "estimate": "+0.1%", "actual": "+0.1%" }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "event": "US Import & Export Price Indexes (June)", "importance": "low", "estimate": "—", "actual": "+0.3%" }, { "date": "2026-07-21", "event": "US State Employment & Unemployment (June)", "importance": "low", "estimate": "—", "actual": null }, { "date": "2026-07-22", "event": "UK Consumer Price Inflation - CPI (June)", "importance": "medium", "estimate": "2.7%", "actual": "2.6%" }, { "date": "2026-07-23", "event": "US Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)", "importance": "low", "estimate": "—", "actual": null }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "event": "US New Residential Sales (June)", "importance": "low", "estimate": "—", "actual": null } ], "FINANCIALS": { "GOOGL": { "rev_unit": "$B", "quarters": [ "Q2'25", "Q3'25", "Q4'25", "Q1'26", "Q2'26E" ], "rev_actual": [ 96.4, 102.4, 110, 109.9, null ], "rev_estimate": [ 94, 100, 108, 103, 110 ], "rev_guide": [ null, null, null, null, null ], "px_actual": [ 175.83, 242.77, 312.78, 287.56, null ], "px_target": [ null, null, null, 434, 434 ] }, "META": { "rev_unit": "$B", "quarters": [ "Q2'25", "Q3'25", "Q4'25", "Q1'26", "Q2'26E" ], "rev_actual": [ 39.1, 40.6, 48.4, 56.3, null ], "rev_estimate": [ 38.5, 40.2, 46.8, 53.7, 55.5 ], "rev_guide": [ 39.5, 40, 47, 54.5, 56.5 ], "px_actual": [ 736.36, 733.15, 659.53, 572.13, null ], "px_target": [ null, null, null, 826, 826 ] }, "AMZN": { "rev_unit": "$B", "quarters": [ "Q2'25", "Q3'25", "Q4'25", "Q1'26", "Q2'26E" ], "rev_actual": [ 148, 159, 187, 181.5, null ], "rev_estimate": [ 146, 157, 184, 177.2, 173 ], "rev_guide": [ 148.5, 158, 184.5, 176.5, 174 ], "px_actual": [ 219.39, 219.57, 230.82, 213.49, null ], "px_target": [ null, null, null, 313, 313 ] }, "NFLX": { "rev_unit": "$B", "quarters": [ "Q2'25", "Q3'25", "Q4'25", "Q1'26", "Q2'26E" ], "rev_actual": [ 11.1, 11.5, 12, 12.25, null ], "rev_estimate": [ 10.95, 11.3, 11.85, 12, 12.45 ], "rev_guide": [ 11.05, 11.45, 11.95, 12.1, 12.4 ], "px_actual": [ 133.91, 119.89, 93.76, 96.15, null ], "px_target": [ null, null, null, 95, 95 ] }, "DIS": { "rev_unit": "$B", "quarters": [ "Q4FY25", "Q1FY26", "Q2FY26", "Q3FY26", "Q4FY26E" ], "rev_actual": [ 22.6, 24.7, 25.17, null, null ], "rev_estimate": [ 22.4, 24.5, 24.85, 23.8, 24.6 ], "rev_guide": [ null, null, null, null, null ], "px_actual": [ 113.73, 113.77, 96.38, null, null ], "px_target": [ null, null, null, 127, 127 ] }, "ROKU": { "rev_unit": "$B", "quarters": [ "Q2'25", "Q3'25", "Q4'25", "Q1'26", "Q2'26E" ], "rev_actual": [ 1.07, 1.21, 1.13, 1.19, null ], "rev_estimate": [ 1.05, 1.18, 1.1, 1.16, 1.24 ], "rev_guide": [ 1.05, 1.2, 1.1, 1.15, 1.23 ], "px_actual": [ null, null, null, null, null ], "px_target": [ null, null, null, 158, 158 ] }, "SNAP": { "rev_unit": "$B", "quarters": [ "Q2'25", "Q3'25", "Q4'25", "Q1'26", "Q2'26E" ], "rev_actual": [ 1.34, 1.5, 1.56, 1.24, null ], "rev_estimate": [ 1.32, 1.48, 1.55, 1.23, 1.53 ], "rev_guide": [ 1.3, 1.45, 1.55, 1.22, 1.535 ], "px_actual": [ null, null, null, null, null ], "px_target": [ null, null, null, 7.4, 7.4 ] }, "RDDT": { "rev_unit": "$M", "quarters": [ "Q2'25", "Q3'25", "Q4'25", "Q1'26", "Q2'26E" ], "rev_actual": [ 348, 425, 510, 663, null ], "rev_estimate": [ 340, 415, 500, 645, 710 ], "rev_guide": [ 352, 422, 520, 658, 720 ], "px_actual": [ null, null, null, null, null ], "px_target": [ null, null, null, 227, 227 ] }, "PINS": { "rev_unit": "$M", "quarters": [ "Q2'25", "Q3'25", "Q4'25", "Q1'26", "Q2'26E" ], "rev_actual": [ 854, 901, 1153, 1080, null ], "rev_estimate": [ 850, 895, 1145, 1075, 1125 ], "rev_guide": [ 855, 905, 1158, 1085, 1130 ], "px_actual": [ null, null, null, null, null ], "px_target": [ null, null, null, 27.6, 27.6 ] }, "APP": { "rev_unit": "$B", "quarters": [ "Q2'25", "Q3'25", "Q4'25", "Q1'26", "Q2'26E" ], "rev_actual": [ 1.26, 1.41, 1.55, 1.84, null ], "rev_estimate": [ 1.24, 1.38, 1.52, 1.77, 1.9 ], "rev_guide": [ 1.235, 1.375, 1.52, null, 1.93 ], "px_actual": [ null, null, 618.32, 386.37, null ], "px_target": [ null, null, null, 655, 655 ] }, "TTD": { "rev_unit": "$M", "quarters": [ "Q2'25", "Q3'25", "Q4'25", "Q1'26", "Q2'26E" ], "rev_actual": [ 633, 715, 758, 689, null ], "rev_estimate": [ 625, 705, 750, 679.5, 745 ], "rev_guide": [ 630, 717, 759, 682, 750 ], "px_actual": [ null, null, null, null, null ], "px_target": [ null, null, null, 24.3, 24.3 ] }, "SHOP": { "rev_unit": "$B", "quarters": [ "Q2'25", "Q3'25", "Q4'25", "Q1'26", "Q2'26E" ], "rev_actual": [ 2.05, 2.16, 2.81, 3.17, null ], "rev_estimate": [ 2.03, 2.13, 2.78, 3.12, 3.21 ], "rev_guide": [ 2, 2.1, 2.75, 3.1, 3.2 ], "px_actual": [ null, null, null, null, null ], "px_target": [ null, null, null, 148, 148 ] } }, "SNAPSHOT_TIMESTAMP": "2026-07-23T07:25:00Z", "LANDSCAPES": { "APP": { "subtitle": "Mobile ad-tech landscape · AppLovin (APP) vs the field · caps at 20-Jul-26", "boxes": [ { "id": "own", "title": "AppLovin — owned stack", "span": true, "tiles": [ { "name": "AXON 2.0", "abbr": "AXON", "role": "AI ad engine", "rel": "own", "logo": null, "angle": "The recommendation engine at the core; its 2023 rebuild drove the ad-segment re-rating that made APP a ~$140B name." }, { "name": "AppDiscovery", "abbr": "AppDisc", "role": "UA / self-serve DSP", "rel": "own", "logo": null, "angle": "The demand-side buying engine — where advertiser budgets enter and AXON spends them." }, { "name": "MAX", "abbr": "MAX", "role": "In-app bidding / mediation", "rel": "own", "logo": null, "angle": "Aggregates publisher supply and runs the real-time auction; competes head-on with AdMob and ironSource." }, { "name": "Adjust", "abbr": "Adjust", "role": "Owned MMP", "rel": "own", "tag": "ACQ '21", "logo": null, "angle": "Owning measurement closes the loop that AppsFlyer/Singular sell to everyone else — a data advantage and a competitive wedge." }, { "name": "Wurl", "abbr": "Wurl", "role": "CTV distribution", "rel": "own", "tag": "ACQ '22", "logo": null, "angle": "The bridge from mobile into connected-TV inventory; optionality on the CTV ad shift." }, { "name": "E-commerce self-serve", "abbr": "E-COMM", "role": "Self-serve platform", "rel": "own", "tag": "2026", "logo": null, "angle": "Opens AXON to non-gaming e-commerce advertisers — the TAM-expansion bet the 2026 story hinges on." } ] }, { "id": "networks", "title": "Ad networks & mediation", "tiles": [ { "name": "Unity", "ticker": "U", "cap": "$12.7B", "role": "Ads + engine (incl. ironSource)", "rel": "compete", "logo": "Unity (+ironSource).png", "angle": "The closest scaled mediation rival post-ironSource; Unity Ads / LevelPlay is MAX's main competitor, but trades at a fraction of APP." }, { "name": "Digital Turbine", "ticker": "APPS", "cap": "$1.0B", "role": "On-device UA", "rel": "compete", "logo": "Digital Turbine.png", "angle": "OEM / on-device distribution niche; real but sub-scale — roughly 0.7% of APP's market cap." }, { "name": "Moloco", "cap": "Private", "role": "ML performance DSP", "rel": "compete", "logo": "Moloco.png", "angle": "Fast-growing machine-learning DSP; the private name most often bracketed with AXON on performance." }, { "name": "Liftoff", "cap": "Private", "role": "UA + mediation (incl. Vungle)", "rel": "compete", "logo": "Liftoff (+Vungle).png", "angle": "Blackstone-backed; merged with Vungle into a full-stack private challenger across UA and mediation." }, { "name": "Mintegral", "ticker": "HK:01860", "cap": "Mobvista", "role": "Programmatic network", "rel": "compete", "logo": "Mobvista.png", "angle": "Chinese-owned (Mobvista); strong in gaming UA and a key alternative supply source to the US duopoly." }, { "name": "InMobi", "cap": "IPO '26 ~$5B", "role": "Network + SSP", "rel": "compete", "logo": "InMobi.png", "angle": "India's ad-tech champion, mid-IPO; SSP/DSP plus Glance lock-screen supply." }, { "name": "Chartboost", "ticker": "TTWO", "cap": "$43.9B", "role": "In-game network", "rel": "compete", "tag": "Take-Two", "logo": "Chartboost.png", "angle": "Owned by games publisher Take-Two; mediation + network but sub-scale versus MAX." } ] }, { "id": "dsp", "title": "DSP · CTV · retail-media comps", "tiles": [ { "name": "The Trade Desk", "ticker": "TTD", "cap": "$8.7B", "role": "Independent DSP", "rel": "compete", "logo": "The Trade Desk.png", "angle": "The other scaled independent — open-web / CTV vs APP's in-app focus; the nearest 'pure' demand comp. Note TTD is ~80% off its highs." }, { "name": "Amazon Ads", "ticker": "AMZN", "cap": "$2.66T", "role": "Retail-media + DSP", "rel": "compete", "logo": "Amazon Ads.png", "angle": "Retail data + Prime Video scale; the retail-media giant AppLovin's e-commerce push runs straight into." }, { "name": "Meta", "ticker": "META", "cap": "$1.64T", "role": "Walled-garden ads", "rel": "compete", "logo": "Meta.png", "angle": "Competes for the same performance budgets and owns its own attribution — a budget rival more than a stack rival." }, { "name": "Google", "ticker": "GOOGL", "cap": "$4.23T", "role": "Walled garden + AdMob", "rel": "compete", "logo": "Google.png", "angle": "Dual role — competitor via AdMob / DV360 and gatekeeper via Android / Privacy Sandbox (see gatekeepers)." } ] }, { "id": "gatekeepers", "title": "Platform gatekeepers", "layer": "red", "tiles": [ { "name": "Apple — ATT / SKAN", "abbr": "ATT", "ticker": "AAPL", "cap": "$4.90T", "role": "iOS privacy + attribution rails", "rel": "gatekeeper", "logo": "Apple ATT-SKAdNetwork.png", "angle": "ATT cut off device signal in 2021; SKAdNetwork defines how iOS installs can be measured at all — the existential platform constraint." }, { "name": "Apple Search Ads", "abbr": "ASA", "ticker": "AAPL", "role": "App Store search demand", "rel": "gatekeeper", "logo": "Apple Search Ads.png", "angle": "Apple's own UA channel — competes for the very install budgets it also gatekeeps." }, { "name": "Google — AdMob / Sandbox", "abbr": "AdMob", "ticker": "GOOGL", "cap": "$4.23T", "role": "Android mediation + privacy rails", "rel": "gatekeeper", "logo": "Google AdMob.png", "angle": "AdMob is a direct MAX rival; Privacy Sandbox is the Android signal-loss overhang still to land." } ] }, { "id": "mmp", "title": "Measurement — MMPs", "layer": "blue", "tiles": [ { "name": "AppsFlyer", "cap": "Private ~$2B", "role": "#1 attribution / MMP", "rel": "measure", "logo": "AppsFlyer.png", "angle": "Market-leading attribution; APP owning Adjust competes with it directly and pressures the neutral-measurement model." }, { "name": "Singular", "cap": "Private", "role": "MMP + analytics", "rel": "measure", "logo": "Singular.png", "angle": "Analytics-led attribution; mid-tier independent." }, { "name": "Kochava", "cap": "Private", "role": "MMP + data mktplace", "rel": "measure", "logo": "Kochava.png", "angle": "Attribution plus a data marketplace; an FTC-privacy lightning rod." }, { "name": "Branch", "cap": "Private", "role": "Deep-linking + MMP", "rel": "measure", "logo": "Branch.png", "angle": "Linking-first attribution; strong in owned-media and web-to-app." }, { "name": "Tenjin", "cap": "Private", "role": "MMP for indies", "rel": "measure", "logo": "Tenjin.png", "angle": "Low-cost attribution aimed at smaller studios." }, { "name": "Sensor Tower", "cap": "Private", "role": "Market intelligence", "rel": "measure", "tag": "+ data.ai", "logo": "Sensor Tower.png", "angle": "Benchmarking / market-intel rather than attribution; merged with data.ai — the numbers analysts cite for the whole space." } ] }, { "id": "chain", "title": "Demand & supply", "span": true, "tiles": [ { "name": "F2P game studios", "abbr": "F2P", "role": "Advertiser demand", "rel": "demand", "logo": null, "angle": "AppLovin's original buyers — free-to-play user-acquisition budgets that feed AppDiscovery." }, { "name": "E-commerce advertisers", "abbr": "E-COMM", "role": "New demand (2026)", "rel": "demand", "logo": null, "angle": "The expansion frontier — non-gaming budgets the self-serve platform is built to capture." }, { "name": "In-app publisher inventory", "abbr": "SUPPLY", "role": "Ad supply", "rel": "supply", "logo": null, "angle": "MAX-mediated impressions across third-party apps — the sell-side AppLovin monetises." }, { "name": "App Store", "abbr": "App Store", "role": "Apple distribution", "rel": "gatekeeper", "logo": "App Store.png", "angle": "Where installs land — Apple owns the rails and takes a cut." }, { "name": "Google Play", "abbr": "Play", "role": "Android distribution", "rel": "gatekeeper", "logo": "Google play.png", "angle": "The Android install storefront — Google's equivalent chokepoint." } ] } ] } } }